QUAN HỆ THƯƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM - TIMOR-LESTE GIAI ĐOẠN 2014 ĐẾN NAY: THỰC TRẠNG, THÁCH THỨC VÀ TRIỂN VỌNG HỢP TÁC TRONG BỐI CẢNH HỘI NHẬP KHU VỰC

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of trade relations between Vietnam and Timor-Leste from 2014 to the present, set against the backdrop of a reconfiguring Southeast Asian regional integration landscape. Drawing upon theoretical frameworks of asymmetric trade, regional integration, and regional value chains, the study reveals that the bilateral trade structure remains asymmetrical—dominated by Vietnam’s exports of primary commodities—while Timor-Leste has yet to capitalize on institutional integration advantages. Quantitative data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the WTO, and the Vietnam WTO and Integration Center indicate a declining bilateral trade volume between 2020 and 2023, reflecting one-dimensional dependence and structural fragility. The study’s key contribution lies in proposing the repositioning of Vietnam-Timor-Leste trade relations as a Regional Value Chain Partnership, shifting the focus from linear trade exchange toward an integrated model of institutional, investment, and production cooperation, aligned with the trajectory of expanded ASEAN integration and the region’s postCOVID-19 development objectives.