Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Bank Performance in Vietnam: Evidence of the Adverse Moderating Effect of Information and Communication Technology

Abstract

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty (CMUI) on the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks and investigates the moderating role of information and communication technology (ICT) in this relationship. Using panel data from 29 commercial banks over the period 2010–2022 and employing the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) estimator, the study addresses potential endogeneity and the dynamic nature of bank performance. The empirical results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty is positively associated with bank performance, while ICT exerts a positive direct effect. However, the interaction between CMUI and ICT is negative and statistically significant, suggesting that the beneficial effect of ICT on bank performance diminishes as macroeconomic uncertainty increases. These findings provide new empirical evidence from an emerging economy and imply that investments in ICT should be implemented strategically and aligned with banks'absorptive capacity to maximize their effectiveness under volatile macroeconomic conditions.